November 11 at The Eagle Square in Nigeria’s capital city of Abuja, Nigeria’s President Dr. Goodluck Jonathan formally declared his intention to run for a second term in next year’s general elections, putting an end to controversies and rumors over whether he could, should or would run, or not. The loudest voice opposing the president’s 2015 ambition is former president Olusegun Obasanjo who said Jonathan assured him in 2011 that he wouldn’t be seeking reelection.

“As a leader, two things you must cherish and hold dear among others are trust and honor, both of which are important ingredients of character,” Obasanjo wrote in an open letter to the president. But President Jonathan has announced he would be contesting next year.

The president said: “Therefore, after seeking the face of God, in quiet reflection with my family and having listened to the call of our people nationwide to run, I, Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan, have accepted to re-present myself, on the platform of The Peoples’ Democratic Party, for re-election as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, in the 2015 general elections.”

About 24 hours prior to the president’s declaration, a suicide bomber killed 48 students between 11 and 20 years at the Government Technical Science College Potiskum, Yobe state. A week prior to the incident, more than 20 Shia Muslims were also killed by another suicide bomber. These killings further raised concerns over the deplorable state of security in Nigeria, especially in northern Nigeria that had been under emergency rule since May 2013.

Nigerian lawmakers are also arguing over the president’s request to extend the emergency rule in the affected states that may extend beyond the 2015 general elections. It is therefore obvious that security, especially in the northern region of the country would be the major talking point as Nigeria decides whether to give President Jonathan another term or try someone else.

“First of all, we are a nation which resolves to flow with the tide even at the expense of our well being.We see hope where there is no hope, we don’t even strive to take action towards realizing this hope,” historian Adejoke Adetoro told AFKInsider.

According to her, the security crises up north have not really had any meaningful impact on the governance of the present administration, owning to the fact that directly or indirectly, the Goodluck Jonathan-led government is benefiting from the crises.

“This is because his government has been able to accord sympathy from the people as they believe that this crisis was an inheritance from the failure of the northern leaders,” Adetoro said. “Hence, it won’t be surprising — if judging by the present reception he has with the people and some so-called leaders up north — he wins election in that region. The argument might be for him to prove himself worthy of his position, or to solve the problem which his administration has helped to escalate.”

Agreeing with Adetoro, Onyeka Onumara, an online commentator added that a victory for the president would be the desire of Nigerian Christians, especially those in the northern part of the country.

“In the north, a Christian minority believes that keeping the president in office will be in their best interest. The Muslim majority, few elites and more laymen believe he is a sponsor of Boko Haram and has intentions of destroying the north. Some even say he is Igbo and is avenging the Civil War,” he said.

“These people will rather die than see Goodluck Jonathan in office. Violence will be inevitable if he wins in these places,especially in the North East.”

In other parts of the country however, Onumara believes the president may get more votes as in Nigeria’s southern region, most view the president “as their brother.” He said that insecurity and Boko Haram is believed to be a tool controlled by the opposition. He also predicted victory for the president even in southwest where the opposition party is currently ruling.

“In the South West, the president will win a slim majority, even in Lagos. The common man there believes Goodluck Jonathan is a lesser devil, not because he has performed but because the major opposition party,the All Progressives Congress (APC) doesn’t have it,” he told AFKInsider.

Bayo Adegbenro, a graduate of Political Science at the University of Ibadan shared Onumara’s opinion on the opposition party. According to him, for the opposition party to be taken serious, it has to do away with its usual candidates.

“Recycling the same old tired legs will not get the sentiment of the South West. In this region, people strongly believe that Ibrahim Shekau, leader of the Boko Haram organization is dead,” he said.

“The Presidency also recently announced it had brokered a deal with Boko Haram and the kidnapped girls will soon be released. If all of this play out successfully, the South West is done and dusted for the president.”

When asked whether they would consider voting for the opposition instead of the president, a cross section of respondents said an exciting candidate from the opposition would excite them to consider change for once. Eight out of 10 suggested the inclusion of current governor of Lagos state, Babatunde Raji Fashola on the APC ticket.

“If APC nominates a Fashola collaboration, I might have a rethink…If not, the president is on the home stretch,” Onumara said.