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Can Libya Remain One Country?

Can Libya Remain One Country?

Just how chaotic has Libya become in the time since longtime dictator Moammar Gaddafi’s bloody ouster in 2011? There is a real chance that in the coming months there will no longer be only one Libya.

Since August, the country has been under the rule of two parliaments, both backed by militias. One formed after elections were held in June and one re-instituted after those elections.

The elected parliament was housed in the Eastern city of Tobruk, near the country’s border with Egypt, after the dire security situation forced it to vacate the capital.

After the elections ousted their allies from parliament, a group of powerful from the country’s West ascended on th capital, using force to re-form the parliament that had been in existence prior to the June elections. This parliament remained in Tripoli.

Broadly, the Tobruk parliament is considered more liberal, and is backed by more liberal militias, while the Tripoli parliament is considered a governing body of the more religiously conservative or Islamist factions, backed by similarly minded militias known under the broad title “Operation Dawn.”

According to Reuters, the problem is exacerbated by what Western officials believe is support on both sides from regional powers.

On the side of the more liberal Tobruk militias is Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, who were recently reported to have flown air raids in favor of said militias. Behind the Operation Dawn militias is Qatar and Turkey, who have provided money and moral support rather than direct involvement.

Since August the two parliaments have acted side by side without any agreement on power sharing or competencies. Both have claimed sovereignty and representation of the people of Libya.

The Libyan Supreme Court issued a ruling last week that will change all that. In effect, the Court ruled that the amendment to the transitional constitution that led to the June elections was illegal. This nullified the elections and thus nullified the Tobruk parliament.

Unsurprisingly, the determination has been rejected by the Tobruk representatives. They allege militia involvement rather than fealty to the law, claiming that the decision was handed down “at gunpoint.”

According to Al Jazeera, a leading lawmaker from the Tobruk parliament, Abu-Bakr Baeira, warned that the ruling would only further the division in the North African state, even using the dreaded word “partition,” according to the AP.

If Tobruk’s allegations of militia interference are correct, this is not the first time that armed militias have played a significant role in important transitional governance decisions.

In March and April of 2013 several armed groups surrounded or sieged the Parliament, the Justice Ministry, the Interior Ministry, the Foreign Ministry and the country’s state run television station in an effort to force Parliament to pass a political isolation law, which would keep former Gaddafi-era politicos from transitional and post-transition positions.

Potential Sanctions

In addition to the violent pressure surrounding the law’s passage, it was constitutionally protected from any sort of review. Thus the pressure was successful and the policy cemented, rather than allowing future bodies to determine the validity of a law passed under such immense and improper pressure.

The international community’s response to the violence and Court decision has been measured, with potential sanctions rather than military involvement.

The United Nations has said that it will “closely” review the decision and remained “committed to working with all parties to help Libya overcome the current political and security crisis” including “all relevant stakeholders…and international partners.”

According to a Reuters report the UN, along with the United States, are weighing sanctions against those most responsible for the violence.

While the UN is weighing the option publicly, the sanctions talks in the United States are taking place behind closed doors. According to the report, very little information on the sanctions was forthcoming.

“US officials declined to say who they might target with sanctions or why they felt it necessary to look at US penalties separate from the United Nations. Nor would they detail what sanctions they would propose.”

The chaos of post-Gaddafi Libya has reached a turning point. In addition to tremendous violence throughout the country, the complete breakdown of governance is cause for concern. Ideological conflicts are playing out against the backdrop of a country that once gave the world so much hope with its oil wealth and newfound freedom from a particularly heinous form of tyranny.

Foreign intervention behind warring militias has the potential to develop the North African state into a major proxy war between regional powers.

The chaos is not, however, a reason to throw ones hands in the air and resign to the madness. This is precisely when the country most needs assistance. As the United Nations has not given up on the country and hopes to continue to work with all relevant stakeholders, so too should the rest of the international community. A lasting peace that will allow the country to transition towards democracy will not come through foreign bombs, but only through diplomacy, negotiation and assistance.

Andrew Friedman is a human rights attorney and consultant who works and writes on legal reform and constitutional law with an emphasis on Africa. He can be reached via email at afriedm2@gmail.com or via twitter @AndrewBFriedman.