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Will KETU Be The New BRICS Of East Africa?

Will KETU Be The New BRICS Of East Africa?

When it comes to acronyms of the global economy, South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria have repeatedly represented Africa.

They show up in acronyms coined by economists and analysts over the last decade-or-so for new emerging markets. These include BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China, South Africa); MINT, (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey); CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa); and EAGLES (Emerging and Growth Leading Economies that include Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Taiwan and Turkey).

But the fortunes of emerging markets — and the reasons for them being lumped together in an acronym — can change long before the acronym wears off, according to an NPR.org report.

Elections, terrorism, sanctions or natural disasters can change a country’s fortunes.

“I’m kind of cynical on the whole idea,” said Andrew Feltus, a portfolio manager at Pioneer Investments. “I think it’s much more a marketing exercise than necessarily a true investment strategy.”

Oliver Williams, an analyst for WealthInsight, said there are many emerging markets that have yet to be lumped together in a grouping, and analysts are weighing in with their choices.

“I think anyone wanting their fame in economics has come up with a grouping,” he told NPR.org.

Jim O’Neill, an economist with Goldman Sachs, is credited with coining the BRIC acronym and buzzword in 2001, NPR.org reports. O’Neill saw those four countries as turbocharged engines among emerging markets, ones that would give Western economies a run for their money.

At the time, people didn’t focus on the potential importance of some of these countries, O’Neill told NPR.org.

“It sort of transformed … the way, I think, many people thought about the world,” he said.

For a while, the fast-growing BRIC economies lived up to the hype. The four countries formed their own economic and political alliance. In 2010, South Africa joined and the acronym changed to BRICS.

O’Neill said he considered South Africa an interloper. It wan’t at the same level as the others, he said. The four original BRIC countries were his babies, and like many children, they disappointed.

“China is the only one of the four that’s growing by more than I ever assumed; the other three so far this decade have been disappointing,” O’Neill said. “I have joked that if I had to dream the acronym up again today, I’d just call it ‘C.'”

While the BRIC engines may be misfiring, other economies are gaining speed, NPR.org reports.

Williams said he might start working on his own grouping and acronym, focusing on markets in Africa, particularly East Africa.

“You’ve got Kenya, you’ve got Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda,” he said, which would give him KETU, or KUTE.

Many emerging markets have similarities that include good fiscal policies and dynamic demographics, Feltus said. But there are also differences in terms of how developed the countries are. Lumping four or five together under an acronym and forgetting the rest is an oversimplification, Feltus told NPR.org.

Feltus points to Turkey, the final letter in the acronym MINT. It is a fast-growing economy, but the government has been battling corruption charges and street protests. Feltus says he would rework MINT.

“I don’t even know if I would include the ‘T’ in it,” he told NPR.org. “Actually, that’s going to be MINI,” meaning Mexico, India Nigeria and Indonesia.

Feltus said he does not recommend that anyone build a strategy based on MINI or any other acronym.

O’Neill, the man behind the BRIC acronym, said he’s sticking with MINT — even though he says people contact him all the time with suggestions.

“I don’t need to make up any more acronyms myself; I can just have the world doing it for me,” he told NPR.org.