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Editorial: Will Robert Be The Last Mugabe To Lead Zimbabwe?

Editorial: Will Robert Be The Last Mugabe To Lead Zimbabwe?

Grace Mugabe, the 49-year-old wife of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, has been making waves in the sub-Saharan country over the past few months.

The first lady has been a significant voice in Zimbabwean conversation because she is allegedly planning to take the reins of the country after her 90-year-old husband leaves power. Adding to the rumors, Grace in October asked the audience at a rally outside Harare, “They say I want to be President. Why not? Am I not a Zimbabwean?”

While Grace has been a central figure in Zimbabwe since the couple wed in 1996, she has previously shown little interest in politics. Her main interests have previously included Zimbabwe’s diamonds and Gucci and Ferragamo shoes. Newspaper headlines have referred to her as DisGrace or the First Shopper, preferring the spoils of leadership to leadership itself. This has changed over the past few months.

To start, Grace was nominated to lead the ruling ZANU-PF’s women’s league. She also will take a seat on the party’s Central Committee. As The Guardian described her ascent, “with her election virtually assured at a party congress in December, she will take a seat on ZANU-PF’s politburo and, as Mugabe’s wife, be untouchable.”

In one particularly curious attempt at creating political legitimacy, Grace was recently given a Ph.D. by the University of Zimbabwe. According to some reports, this was after enrolling in a Ph.D. program only two months earlier. Adding to speculation of malfeasance is the fact that she was awarded the doctorate by her husband, who serves as the country’s chancellor.

In addition to Grace’s recently acquired political acumen, Robert recently changed the ZANU-PF’s bylaws to allow him an even bigger role in the selection of his heir. According to a report by the Mail and the Guardian, until now Robert’s two deputies have been appointed by party members from the country’s 10 regions. Following an all-night meeting of the party politburo, Robert now has sole power to appoint his deputies, giving him what the newspaper referred to as “unassailable power.”

The newfound political ambition of the first lady comes at a delicate time for the sub-Saharan state. Robert has led the ZANU-PF since 1975 and the country since 1980. This has led to widespread speculation both from within and without the country as to who will eventually serve as his successor. For the nonegenarian president, this time could be coming soon, whether by his own decision, term limits in less than a decade or the end of his life.

The two main candidates prior to Grace included Joice Mujuru, who serves as vice president and Emmerson Mnangagwa, the country’s minister of justice. Both have long ties to the country’s governance, serving in Robert’s parliament since independence in 1980.

According to one analysis by the Zimbabwean Independent, Mujuru enjoys widespread popular support and has also “consistently demonstrated that she can beat Mnangagwa in ZANU-PF internal elections,” while Mnangagwa’s biggest draw appears to be his control of “handy instruments of cohesion.” During his time as minister of defense, he drew very close to the security establishment, including hard line military commanders, something that is “very important to Mugabe,” according to a senior ZANU-PF official.

The previous two-horse race for Mugabe’s succession has not only been complicated by Grace’s injection — she has also launched what The Guardian described as a “vitriolic” campaign against Mujuru. These attacks included a vicious soliloquy calling Mujuru “ungrateful, power-hungry, daft, corrupt, foolish, divisive and a disgrace.” A similar report by New Zimbabwe said the first lady had also accused Mujuru of plotting a coup against her husband.

Robert has served as the leader of Zimbabwe for nearly 35 years. During that time the country has gone from breadbasket of Africa to struggling with hyperinflation, dire poverty and hunger, all alongside extensive human rights violations. Recent changes to the party charter of ruling ZANU-PF will virtually ensure that Robert is able to pick his own successor. His most serious options include his wife, who until a few months ago never displayed a serious interest in governance and two ZANU-PF insiders who have been members of Robert’s cabinet since independence. While there is sure to be an internal power struggle after the aging despot leaves, his most likely choices do not give much hope for change in Zimbabwe.

Of the three potential contenders, one holds the support of the most powerful state institutions, one holds the support of the populace and one seems to hold nothing but a belief in the power of nepotism. Unfortunately, as Grace’s aggressive campaigning continues and her husband changes the rules allowing him to appoint his successor, it appears she may be right.

Andrew Friedman is a human rights attorney and consultant who works and writes on legal reform and constitutional law with an emphasis on Africa. He can be reached via email at afriedm2@gmail.com or via twitter @AndrewBFriedman.