The price of bread is linked to wheat, and wheat is a product that is often in less supply than is demanded, but this year bread will be even more affected by the drought which will see less wheat produced. The price of bread will therefore increase and impact consumers due to the fact that bread is a staple food.
Eggs are yet another item of food that will likely see a price increase in the coming months, due to the pressure on the poultry industry and the increasing price of maize, which is used to feed the egg producing chickens. Experts are forecasting a 10% increase in the price of eggs, when passed on to the consumer.
According to Ernest du Toit, spokesman for the SA Rooibos Council, the tea is set to skyrocket by up to 90 percent. Rooibos farmers experienced very little or no rain in the planting months of July and August in the Cederberg region, which is the only place in the world where Rooibos grows naturally.
Both white and yellow maize production will be heavily affected by the lack of rain in South Africa. Yellow maize is used for animal feed and its price has a direct effect on the prices of poultry, red meat and dairy products. Maize meal could increase by another 15% according to experts, which will hit consumers hard.
As a point of reference the South African drought in February 2015 caused a 70% increase in the price of white maize, which produced a 14% increase in mealie meal prices. This will happen once again, and will impact the poor in particular, who are the main consumers of mealie meal as a food that they rely heavily on.
Experts expect to see a rise of between 4-5% in the price of beef once the full effects of the drought are felt on the market, but interestingly, consumers will be able to enjoy a drop in the price of red meat in December due to a surplus of beef and the need for farmers to urgently sell off livestock to cover costs. This comes at a welcome time for South African consumers who are already under pressure, as the Christmas season approaches.
The price of chicken is set to increase due to the drought, which is hitting farmers hard throughout South Africa. Yellow maize production has been severely affected, and this is used for animal feed, which means that the price of poultry will feel the knock-on effect. Chicken is expected to see a 6% increase in price because of the issues with maize.
According to Statistics South Africa, food inflation slowed in the last year, decreasing from 7.4 percent in December 2014 to 6.6 percent in January 2015. The main reason for the declining food inflation was vegetables, but this will now change as a surplus of vegetables will not be available due to lack of rain and the inability of farmers to produce optimally in these conditions. Vegetable farmers along the West Coast have harvested less than one third of their average output.
In the same way that the drought and lack of rain or water for irrigation affects vegetables, fruit production is also under pressure, and there will be less fruit available in the coming months, and beyond depending on the amount of rain that will fall in the next few months. Less fruit available locally will translate to added imported fruit products, which will raise prices.
As wheat is a major ingredient in most cereals, these products will likely experience an increase in price, as the amount of wheat produced in the Western Cape, considered to be the country’s breadbasket, is at record lows. Those struggles translate to less production, making for an imbalance in the supply and demand of wheat products such as bread and cereal.
